**A standard U.S. rule of thumb implies roughly 12–13% real GDP growth over one year, or 7.5–8% annually over two years**, assuming unemployment starts at 9–10% and underlying trend growth is 3%.

The relationship is called **Okun’s law**. A March 2010 San Francisco Fed analysis describes the U.S. relationship as approximately two to one: growth 2 percentage points above trend is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in unemployment. It used 3% as the trend growth rate. [San Francisco Fed, March 8, 2010](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2010/03/okun-law-unemployment-2009/)

Using that approximation,

\[
\Delta u \approx -\tfrac12(g-3),
\]

where \(g\) is annual real GDP growth in percent and \(\Delta u\) is the annual change in unemployment in **percentage points**.

Halving unemployment from 10% to 5% means a **5-percentage-point** reduction. Over \(T\) years, the implied average annual growth rate is approximately

\[
g \approx 3+\frac{2(u_0-u_{\text{target}})}{T}.
\]

Assuming a starting date of December 2010:

| Starting unemployment | Target | By December 2011 | By December 2012 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 9% | 4.5% | 12% growth | 7.5% annually |
| 10% | 5% | 13% growth | 8% annually |

These are **illustrative estimates, not guaranteed requirements**. Okun’s law is an empirical average; productivity, hours worked, and labor-force participation affect the outcome. The same Fed analysis documented a substantial departure from the relationship in 2009. Extrapolating it to a rapid halving of unemployment therefore carries considerable uncertainty. [San Francisco Fed](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2010/03/okun-law-unemployment-2009/)

The trend-growth assumption also matters: using 2% would lower every growth estimate in the table by 1 percentage point. And your South African employment-growth coefficient measures a different quantity: percentage growth in jobs differs from a percentage-point decline in the unemployment rate, whose denominator is the labor force.